Sky’s Super League matches: margin of victory markets – featuring a 10/1 bet

Much of our betting chat has focussed on the match result and the handicap betting. This is still available but here is where we are going to look at some of the averages from the season so far and point you in the direction of the relevant markets and bets which fall into those categories.

Naturally, there are outliers – so don’t go regarding these as bankers but it will be interesting to see if any money can be made from it. Here’s where you ought to be looking for these two games based on some averages and trends:

Widnes v St Helens:

St Helens are the heavy favourites to get the win against bottom-of-the-table Widnes at the Select Security Stadium. Widnes have been on the end of some heavy defeats so far this season but there have been a couple of tight encounters at home – though they have yet to pick up a point on their own patch.

Their average margin of defeat is just below 20 points, with five of their defeats this season ranging between 20 and 36 point margins. Saints winning by 20-30 points is available at 15/4 with Bet365.

St Helens have only had one big win this season and that was at home to Warrington and have had three wins that would fall into the 1-5 points market. A win like that is 8/1 with Betfred, but a slightly bigger margin (6-10 points) is best priced at 11/2. Covering a 1-10 margin is a 11/4 price with Bet365.

A big game in front of the cameras could mean a tighter affair. If you fancy the home side to spring their surprise, it’s best to back them outright as outlined in our post about match betting and handicaps.

Warrington v Wakefield:

Three wins on the bounce for Warrington going into this game but they have been by pretty narrow margins, while Wakefield’s games have been predominantly tight.

That’s why we like the look of their price to win in our earlier post but predicting the precise scorelines obviously comes with better odds and greater risk.

Three of Wakefield’s five wins have been within 1-5 points and they’re 10/1 with Ladbrokes to make it a fourth win within that margin. For a tight game with a little less risk (1-10 points), they’re 5/1 with the same bookmaker. Also, four of Warrington’s seven defeats have been within 10 points which probably makes that bet a little more favourable.

Three of their five defeats have been by eight points or fewer, while Warrington’s average margin of victory is just over seven points. Warrington to win by 6-10 points is available at 5/1, and by 1-10 points at 5/2.

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