Margins of victory are always pretty hard to predict and given the results involving the four sides in action on Sunday in recent weeks, it could be harder than ever this weekend.
Nevertheless, that’s not going to stop us looking at our averages to try and highlight the kind of bets you ought to be looking at this weekend.
Hull v Castleford:
First up is Hull v Castleford. The bookies anticipate this one to be a pretty tight game – as outlined in our piece covering the match winner and handicap markets.
If Hull are to get the better of Cas you would have to fancy them to win within 10 points – three of their wins this season have come within such a margin, but their past two home losses has pushed their average margin of defeat up to 22 points. Hull to win by 1-10 points is 11/4 with Bet365 – whereas a win by 1-5 points is 13/2 with Bet Victor.
Castleford’s average win margin is above 26 points – though three of their last four wins would fit into the 16-20 point market. A similar result would not look out of place either and they are 9/1 to win within that margin with both William Hill and Paddy Power. If you’re after a ‘safer’ bet – the Tigers to win by 11-20 is 7/2 with Bet365.
Wigan v Catalans:
Wigan are favourites to get the better of Catalans and climb into the top three come the end of the weekend.
The Warriors have demonstrated they have a tight defence so far this season – the second best in the competition so far.
Catalans have won three on the bounce and will look to continue that good run. If so, they are probably going to make it a tight affair having won two of their three away games this season by less than 10 points.
Their average margin of victory is 12, but it is skewed a little by their latest result against Salford – a win by 32 points. So looking at Catalans to win by 1-5 points (10/1 with Ladbrokes) or by 6-10 points (11/1, also with Ladbrokes) could be worth backing if you fancy the visitors.
However, if you’re more inclined to back the favourites then the chances are they won’t win by more than 20. Their biggest win of the season – by a 22-point margin – came when they visited an out-of-sorts Warrington.
Ladbrokes have Wigan to win by 1-10 at 5/2 while Bet365 have an 11-20 point victory at 11/4. Wigan by 11-15 points could be worth backing – and is available at 7/1 with Paddy Power.